Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
88 0x88fc…eda8 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$618 (+29%) realized +$1,130 · open −$512
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$147
sports 22% +$592
crypto 5% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+75.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +93.7% +75.3% 71% 71% +70.8%
≤30d 7 +93.7% +75.3% 71% 71% +70.8%
≤90d 7 +93.7% +75.3% 71% 71% +70.8%
all 7 +93.7% +75.3% 71% 71% +70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.3% 71% +70.8%
10% +58.5% 71% +54.4%
15% +43.2% 71% +39.5%
20% +29.1% 71% +25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$69 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.42 per $1 lost it wins $8.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$1,130
Unrealized−$512
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $509 $0 −$509 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $77 +$150 +194%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$77 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$59 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $556 +$365 +66%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 −$55 -77%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$82 -80%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$503 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 16m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $228 48m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $77 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $921 17h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $252 19h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $71 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $707 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.69 · official $496.69 (match) · 20 history records