Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88fb…db3a sports 491 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$748 (-3%) realized −$767 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%213W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$5
14 days+$238
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$376
other 4% −$537
crypto 3% −$187
world 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 43% -9.7%
≤30d 319 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 43% -10.1%
≤90d 480 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 44% -13.2%
all 480 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 44% -13.2%
10% -19.6% 43% -21.5%
15% -27.3% 43% -29.1%
20% -34.5% 43% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$50 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$767
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses213 / 267
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions7
Markets (closed)480 / 491
History coverage50d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 32¢ 54¢ $38 $64 +$26 (+67%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Samsung Lions 43¢ 67¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 52¢ 60¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kiwoom Heroes 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $43 +$97 +226%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$33 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $76 +$29 +37%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$28 +276%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $21 +$39 +180%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 20 $30 +$31 +101%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $30 +$27 +88%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 −$119 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$49 +97%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$45 +105%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$79 +97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $20 +$32 +158%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$18 +117%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$33 +64%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 +$68 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$79 +307%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 28¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 31¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 1h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 52¢ $20 3h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 43¢ $20 3h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 44¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $31 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $25 8h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 21¢ $31 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 30¢ $43 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $45 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $112 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $51 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $12 19h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 26¢ $10 19h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 26¢ $10 19h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $21 19h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 52¢ $30 27h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $30 27h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 49¢ $30 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $119 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 32h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY 43¢ $10 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.30 · official $267.68 · 1108 history records