Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88fa…fd36 world 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (362 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$796 (+161%) realized +$726 · open +$70
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day361.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$283
other 2% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +46.7% +32.8% 50% 25% +206.3%
≤30d 4 +46.7% +32.8% 50% 25% +206.3%
≤90d 4 +46.7% +32.8% 50% 25% +206.3%
all 4 +46.7% +32.8% 50% 25% +206.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover361.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.8% 25% +206.3%
10% ← realistic here +20.1% 25% +177.0%
15% +8.5% 25% +150.2%
20% -2.2% 25% +125.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +238% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +238% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
232.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$4 · ×26.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.97 per $1 lost it wins $26.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized+$726
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day361.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $56 +$215 +386%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 39m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 48m
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 49m
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 50m
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 51m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 54m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.37 · official $595.37 (match) · 3500 history records