Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88f9…5c03 sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,502 (+10%) realized +$2,502 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%77W / 34L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day187.6pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,901
other 39% +$385
world 9% −$296
crypto 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +7.4% -2.8% 69% 27% -2.1%
≤30d 111 +7.4% -2.8% 69% 27% -2.1%
≤90d 111 +7.4% -2.8% 69% 27% -2.1%
all 111 +7.4% -2.8% 69% 27% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 27% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 11% -11.4%
15% -20.6% 9% -20.0%
20% -28.4% 5% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$25 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses77 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage5d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day187.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,952 +$12 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $210 −$20 -10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $77 +$4 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $95 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,665 +$81 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $218 +$47 +22%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $69 +$3 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,066 +$352 +17%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $79 −$10 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,351 −$1 -0%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $96 −$2 -2%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $0 $0 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $111 +$18 +16%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $83 +$3 +3%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $335 +$33 +10%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $34 +$4 +11%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $57 +$12 +21%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $72 −$58 -80%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $58 −$56 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $59 +$80 +135%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $98 +$5 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,171 −$80 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,278 −$296 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $269 −$158 -59%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,222 +$25 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $883 +$301 +34%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $99 +$8 +8%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $122 +$4 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $21 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1,606 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,566 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,337 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,365 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 22¢ $18 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 22¢ $20 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 23¢ $22 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 23¢ $20 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $10 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $12 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $21 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $0 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $0 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $13 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $14 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 59¢ $58 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $35 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $33 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 66¢ $33 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $33 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 53¢ $13 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 79¢ $20 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $13 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $13 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 73¢ $13 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 73¢ $13 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 13¢ $0 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 14¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 903 history records