Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88f8…9ada politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
sports 39% −$2
other 11% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -10.2% -18.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage226d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $100 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 19 $104 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $105 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $317 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 15 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $102 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $102 26d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $101 106d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 109d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 114d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $104 124d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $104 130d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 0¢ $1 142d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $101 142d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $101 143d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 145d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 148d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $102 149d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $102 150d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 151d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 153d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 154d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $101 157d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 157d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 158d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $104 159d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $104 160d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $104 161d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $104 164d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $102 164d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $102 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.20 · official $3.20 (match) · 144 history records