Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88f3…d8db crypto 320 markets active 3d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%162W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$93
world 17% +$28
other 3% +$9
finance 2% −$1
sports 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.0% -1.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
≤30d 26 +9.0% -1.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
≤90d 26 +9.0% -1.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
all 318 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 45% -13.2%
10% -18.4% 41% -21.5%
15% -26.3% 33% -29.1%
20% -33.5% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses162 / 156
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)318 / 320
History coverage110d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$12 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$13 +309%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$17 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$43 +406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $13 −$9 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 13 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 12 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$18 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 12 $28 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 12 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 12 $6 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 12 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $3 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 1082 history records