Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88ee…c234 world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,183 (-5%) realized −$4,571 · open +$1,388
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,965per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$3,443
14 days−$3,913
30 days−$3,913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$3,942
sports 27% −$7,511
politics 8% +$238
other 6% +$337
tech 4% +$922
culture 3% −$167
crypto 1% −$284
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 29% -0.3%
≤30d 20 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 25% -16.5%
≤90d 20 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 25% -16.5%
all 20 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 25% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 25% -16.5%
10% -33.1% 20% -24.5%
15% ← realistic here -39.6% 15% -31.8%
20% -45.5% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$5,359) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$617 vs −$1,008 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$14,210
Realized−$4,571
Unrealized+$1,388
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions14
Markets (closed)20 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,965
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 70¢ 96¢ $3,408 $4,667 +$1,259 (+37%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $2,550 $2,685 +$135 (+5%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 90¢ $2,515 $2,617 +$102 (+4%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $2,160 $2,023 −$138 (-6%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $625 $713 +$88 (+14%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $723 $420 −$303 (-42%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 47¢ 69¢ $145 $215 +$70 (+49%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 89¢ 100¢ $185 $209 +$24 (+13%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 63¢ 26¢ $479 $193 −$286 (-60%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 20¢ 31¢ $104 $159 +$55 (+53%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 20¢ 74¢ $40 $149 +$109 (+272%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 24¢ 56¢ $29 $67 +$38 (+131%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $2,175 +$1,286 +59%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $108 −$19 -18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7,600 +$400 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $7,450 −$1,415 -19%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $2,522 +$130 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $5,359 +$1,294 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,929 +$1,130 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $549 −$99 -18%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,634 +$895 +55%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $175 −$175 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,274 +$1,019 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $236 −$97 -41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,170 −$6,462 -64%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3,811 −$1,549 -41%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $81 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $185 −$185 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 8¢ $320 11m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $260 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 5¢ $186 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 21¢ $215 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 15¢ $90 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $240 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $960 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $444 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $560 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $215 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $909 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $69 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $225 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $48 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $7 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $483 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $130 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $2,295 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $210 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $90 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 51¢ $56 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 51¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,209.66 · official $14,209.69 (match) · 321 history records