Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x88ed…8300
sports · 510 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,176 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,186 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$724
Realized−$1,186
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses253 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions8
Markets (closed)502 / 510
History coverage170d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 8 History 502 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$66
14 days−$136
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Tatiana Prozorova 58¢ 100¢ $85 $146 +$61 (+72%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Nice: Tatiana Pieri vs Alina Granwehr Tatiana Pieri 53¢ 40¢ $135 $102 −$33 (-25%)
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 22.5 Under 55¢ 50¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-10%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Harriet Dart 55¢ 45¢ $65 $53 −$12 (-18%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Spurs 49¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 40¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Timberwolves 52¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 43¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Italy 42¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Indiana Fever 46¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $66 +$48 +73%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $146 −$145 -99%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $66 −$65 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $152 +$90 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $127 +$123 +97%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 09 $46 −$45 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $97 −$95 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $86 −$85 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $96 −$95 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $56 +$46 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 08 $76 −$75 -98%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $86 −$85 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 08 $66 −$65 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $66 −$7 -10%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $127 +$118 +93%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $147 +$149 +101%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $137 −$135 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $56 +$61 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$46 +46%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $142 +$174 +122%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $137 −$135 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $86 +$61 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $111 +$82 +73%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $137 +$109 +79%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $66 +$88 +134%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $112 −$110 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $127 −$125 -98%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $117 +$100 +86%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $122 +$101 +83%
Spread: Georgia (-1.5) Jun 05 $127 +$101 +80%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $239 −$235 -98%
Spread: Russia (-1.5) Jun 05 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Oman win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $66 −$65 -98%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) Jun 05 $228 −$225 -99%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Yufei Ren Jun 05 $117 +$93 +80%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $127 −$125 -99%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $137 +$111 +81%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: Draw at halftime? Jun 04 $127 +$133 +105%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $127 −$9 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $157 +$89 +56%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 03 $127 −$125 -98%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $132 −$130 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 03 $167 −$165 -99%
Birmingham: Gabriela Knutson vs Joanna Garland Jun 02 $127 +$145 +114%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $147 −$145 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $86 −$85 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$1,193
other 14% +$48
world 3% −$83
finance 1% −$13
politics 1% −$28
crypto 0% +$122
tech 0% −$26
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $120 1h
ITF Nice: Tatiana Pieri vs Alina Granwehr BUY Tatiana Pieri 53¢ $137 1h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 55¢ $66 25h
Cirstea vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 55¢ $76 25h
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Tatiana Prozorova 58¢ $86 25h
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $146 2d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $66 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 62¢ $152 2d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 32¢ $46 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $127 2d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Thomas Faurel 57¢ $66 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 42¢ $97 3d
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $86 3d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $96 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 49¢ $76 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 54¢ $56 3d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $86 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $66 3d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $66 3d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $56 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 41¢ $59 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 44¢ $66 5d
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $147 5d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 5d
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $127 5d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $137 5d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $317 5d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $56 5d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 44¢ $142 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 56¢ $137 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.7% -15.6% 48% 48% -7.7%
≤30d 131 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 326 -25.8% -32.9% 41% 36% -21.8%
all 502 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 40% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 40% -11.9%
10% -21.4% 37% -20.3%
15% -29.0% 36% -28.0%
20% -36.0% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.53 · official $723.53 (match) · 1258 history records