Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88eb…ac69 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%44W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$4
politics 22% −$3
other 13% −$14
world 6% +$24
finance 1% −$16
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 38% -7.1%
≤30d 66 -9.3% -18.0% 45% 39% -9.7%
≤90d 71 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 42% -13.0%
all 97 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 35% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 35% -10.4%
10% -21.9% 30% -18.9%
15% -29.5% 24% -26.8%
20% -36.4% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses44 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)97 / 118
History coverage538d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+163%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 82¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 69¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 40¢ 62¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+54%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 73¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 37¢ 32¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 46¢ 86¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+88%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 13¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? OpenAI 8¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+35%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 4? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +83%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$7 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$6 +165%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -47%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $6 +$10 +177%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -35%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$4 +65%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $6 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $2 +$8 +414%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $6 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 31¢ $2 8m
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 40¢ $4 36m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 40¢ $4 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 24¢ $1 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 15¢ $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 46¢ $2 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 65¢ $3 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 6h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 37¢ $4 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 8h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.18 · official $93.18 (match) · 321 history records