Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e9…a226 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$753 (-29%) realized −$736 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$188
14 days−$638
30 days−$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$599
economics 40% −$123
world 11% +$21
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$27
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-66.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -58.2% -62.2% 6% 6% -56.1%
≤30d 45 -68.4% -71.4% 4% 4% -78.0%
≤90d 45 -68.4% -71.4% 4% 4% -78.0%
all 51 -62.9% -66.4% 6% 6% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.4% 6% -39.9%
10% -69.6% 4% -45.6%
15% -72.6% 4% -50.9%
20% -75.2% 4% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$17 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$736
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage265d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $169 $152 −$17 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -69%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$20 -80%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$13 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -63%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -56%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -93%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 −$7 -57%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $23 −$17 -76%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 −$9 -42%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$15 -57%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$3 -21%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $11 −$3 -24%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $14 −$3 -21%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $19 +$37 +198%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $28 −$21 -75%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$45 -91%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $98 −$96 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $75 −$73 -97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $250 +$49 +19%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $454 −$46 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 14 $101 −$11 -11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 03 $274 −$31 -12%
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2? Oct 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $69 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 37h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.74 · official $151.74 (match) · 106 history records