Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e7…7b50 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$2,658 · open −$2,528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$766per market
Trades / day154.9pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,182
crypto 7% −$284
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+85.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +105.0% +85.5% 76% 47% -14.5%
≤30d 17 +105.0% +85.5% 76% 47% -14.5%
≤90d 17 +105.0% +85.5% 76% 47% -14.5%
all 17 +105.0% +85.5% 76% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +85.5% 47% -14.5%
10% +67.8% 18% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here +51.6% 12% -30.1%
20% +36.7% 6% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +186% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$447 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$2,658
Unrealized−$2,528
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$766
Trades / day154.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 12¢ 0¢ $2,473 $10 −$2,463 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ 0¢ $69 $3 −$66 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $11 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $426 −$426 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $1,828 +$659 +36%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $365 −$331 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $171 +$12 +7%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $654 +$221 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $1,065 +$92 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$16 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $441 +$50 +11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1,887 +$103 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1,321 +$165 +12%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $690 +$300 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $2,097 +$248 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ $71 15m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $208 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $83 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $132 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $14 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $95 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $480 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $171 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $19 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $2 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $12 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $237 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $5 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $12 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $2 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $12 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.83 · official $13.83 (match) · 251 history records