Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88e6…7d69 crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+1%) realized +$254 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%117W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$18
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 10% -8.1%
≤90d 45 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 2% -8.5%
all 117 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 1% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses117 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage172d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 98¢ $451 $452 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $448 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $440 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $438 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $438 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $436 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $434 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $430 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $429 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $382 +$48 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $379 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $369 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 13? May 13 $366 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12? May 12 $366 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $366 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $348 +$17 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 5? May 05 $347 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4? May 04 $343 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $339 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 02 $339 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $337 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $329 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $253 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $247 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $243 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $237 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $235 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $233 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $232 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $231 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $230 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $230 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $228 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $227 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $227 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $224 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 28? Mar 29 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $219 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $216 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $216 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $213 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $211 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $452 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $450 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $448 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $440 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $438 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $438 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $436 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $434 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $430 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $429 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 88¢ $382 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $379 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? BUY No 97¢ $369 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $366 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $366 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $366 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? BUY No 95¢ $7 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? BUY No 95¢ $241 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? BUY No 95¢ $100 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $347 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4? BUY No 99¢ $343 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 3? BUY No 99¢ $339 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $339 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $337 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $254 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $253 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $75 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? BUY No 97¢ $247 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $246 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $243 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.61 · official $451.61 (match) · 238 history records