Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e4…7ab6 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$4
other 14% +$1
politics 10% −$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 23 +1.1% -8.6% 35% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 23 +1.1% -8.6% 35% 9% -9.9%
all 41 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage260d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $4 $0 +9%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $2 $0 -22%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $39 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $15 +$2 +11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Nov 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $23 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $36 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $36 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $39 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $40 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $40 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $10 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $28 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $8 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.66 · official $38.66 (match) · 159 history records