Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88e4…15e6 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$129 (+7%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$41
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$135
sports 31% +$217
crypto 3% +$29
world 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +9.8% -0.7% 68% 65% -6.2%
≤30d 52 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 58% -3.3%
≤90d 52 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 58% -3.3%
all 52 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 58% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 58% -3.3%
10% -19.1% 40% -12.6%
15% -26.9% 37% -21.0%
20% -34.0% 25% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$9 -61%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$24 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$18 -59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$19 +88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 −$38 -54%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$20 -65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $122 +$97 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$109 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$7 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$18 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 +$11 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $119 +$27 +23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $22 +$28 +124%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $47 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 36¢ $32 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records