Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e4…e2af crypto 848 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-0%) realized −$177 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate72%608W / 236L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$52
14 days+$46
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$214
crypto 41% −$123
sports 3% +$30
other 1% +$42
world 0% −$25
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.4% -7.3% 69% 8% -10.5%
≤30d 116 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 13% -8.6%
≤90d 844 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 32% -9.4%
all 844 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 32% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 32% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 15% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 11% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses608 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)844 / 848
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 844 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $321 $389 +$67 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 99¢ $36 $44 +$7 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $346 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$11 +506%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 15 $450 +$37 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $240 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $436 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$25 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $552 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $347 +$24 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $430 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 −$83 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $381 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 −$144 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $319 +$33 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $261 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $817 +$24 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$12 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $566 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $208 +$37 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $185 −$31 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $287 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 3? Jun 05 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 05 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $361 +$28 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $211 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $81 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $125 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 35¢ $133 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $59 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.45 · official $536.68 (match) · 3500 history records