Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88e3…384e other 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,528 (+1%) realized +$12,056 · open −$10,528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 101L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1,838per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$14,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$281
14 days+$5,027
30 days+$9,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$22,282
other 18% −$7,062
politics 9% −$14,655
sports 1% −$437
crypto 0% +$362
finance 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.3% -21.6% 22% 22% +2.6%
≤30d 81 +1.4% -8.3% 30% 23% -4.9%
≤90d 152 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 26% -5.4%
all 152 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 26% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 26% -5.4%
10% -22.8% 21% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.3% 18% -22.7%
20% -37.1% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$534 vs −$162 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$14,176
Realized+$12,056
Unrealized−$10,528
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions5
Markets (closed)152 / 157
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,838
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 59¢ 47¢ $17,648 $13,997 −$3,651 (-21%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6,483 $140 −$6,343 (-98%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 10¢ 0¢ $481 $20 −$461 (-96%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $88 $14 −$73 (-84%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $159 −$133 -84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 +$38 +99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 +$32 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $111 −$66 -60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $429 +$575 +134%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$50 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,063 −$86 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$1 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$16 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,021 −$1,001 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $513 −$13 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$49 +24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $143 +$43 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $447 −$440 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $509 +$755 +148%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$84 +1636%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $611 −$404 -66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$29 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5,418 +$1,917 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $27,068 +$4,066 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $609 +$428 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $146 −$75 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $921 +$20 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $360 −$163 -45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $62 +$11 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $82 −$8 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $183 −$178 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,319 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 1¢ $2 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 9¢ $92 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $93 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 9¢ $45 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 9¢ $187 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $343 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 10¢ $588 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $98 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 10¢ $40 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $95 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $46 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $107 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $147 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,176.00 · official $14,178.50 (match) · 1982 history records