Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88db…54a4 sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,594 (+4%) realized +$2,700 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%68W / 72L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$662est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$1,965
14 days+$3,046
30 days−$1,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$342
other 11% +$1,676
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% +24.8%
≤30d 90 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 140 -3.0% -12.2% 49% 47% -6.4%
all 140 -3.0% -12.2% 49% 47% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 47% -6.4%
10% -20.6% 44% -15.4%
15% -28.3% 41% -23.6%
20% -35.3% 31% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$352 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,504
Realized+$2,700
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses68 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$662
Open positions4
Markets (closed)140 / 144
History coverage63d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 58¢ $546 $688 +$142 (+26%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 73¢ 47¢ $673 $433 −$240 (-36%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 20¢ $224 $218 −$6 (-2%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 55¢ 55¢ $167 $164 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $79 +$131 +165%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,206 +$311 +26%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$80 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $117 −$115 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $324 +$122 +38%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $911 +$418 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $787 +$343 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $929 +$1,102 +119%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $240 +$48 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $97 +$103 +105%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $1,044 +$414 +40%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $405 +$241 +60%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $655 −$651 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $387 −$383 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $423 −$420 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $207 +$427 +206%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $665 +$161 +24%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,270 +$528 +42%
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $779 +$389 +50%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $178 −$15 -8%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Jun 08 $553 −$550 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$99 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $2,298 +$1,002 +44%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $115 +$24 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $416 +$157 +38%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $52 +$122 +234%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 06 $81 +$52 +65%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $337 −$332 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $816 +$39 +5%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $594 +$345 +58%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $192 −$190 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 03 $145 −$143 -98%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) Jun 01 $401 +$439 +109%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $109 +$196 +180%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group S Jun 01 $258 +$306 +119%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2,605 +$1,361 +52%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $1,492 −$1,472 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $107 −$106 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $555 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 74¢ $174 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 72¢ $135 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 73¢ $369 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $31 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $199 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $77 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $79 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $169 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL Spirit 46¢ $138 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $153 3d
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $96 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $603 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $603 4d
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) BUY BASEMENT BOYS 39¢ $50 4d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 36¢ $45 4d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $40 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $118 5d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner BUY Gaming By Legends 10¢ $82 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $101 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $16 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 66¢ $53 6d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 72¢ $324 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $156 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $702 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $787 6d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 41¢ $117 7d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 41¢ $123 7d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 41¢ $43 7d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY Misa Esports 79¢ $655 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,504.20 · official $1,504.20 (match) · 319 history records