Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88da…630a other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%53W / 75L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$58
politics 25% +$3
other 23% +$21
sports 9% +$6
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.6% -2.6% 56% 11% -5.9%
≤30d 18 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 6% -7.1%
≤90d 51 +1.9% -7.8% 35% 4% -8.3%
all 128 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -8.5%
10% -17.4% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.97 per $1 lost it wins $7.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses53 / 75
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)128 / 131
History coverage467d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $118 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $159 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $282 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $70 +$49 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $354 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $123 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $115 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $111 +$5 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $23 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $104 +$3 +2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $206 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $38 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $99 +$5 +5%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $98 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $189 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $22 $0 -1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $99 +$1 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 26 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $92 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $102 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $27 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $30 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $12 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $113 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $35 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $118 22h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $106 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $12 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $159 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $159 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $99 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $60 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $97 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $62 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $175 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $175 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.66 · official $99.36 (match) · 531 history records