Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x88d9…2dd5 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$836 (-77%) realized −$774 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days−$407
14 days−$407
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$469
tech 31% −$326
world 5% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-86.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.5% -68.8% 0% 0% -69.1%
≤30d 4 -74.1% -76.6% 0% 0% -73.0%
≤90d 7 -85.2% -86.6% 0% 0% -80.8%
all 7 -85.2% -86.6% 0% 0% -80.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.6% 0% -80.8%
10% -87.9% 0% -82.7%
15% -89.1% 0% -84.3%
20% -90.1% 0% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$112 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$774
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage70d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $71 $10 −$62 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $413 −$228 -55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 17 $44 −$18 -41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $166 −$161 -97%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $91 −$88 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? May 11 $113 −$109 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 10 $133 −$129 -97%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 27¢ $185 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $64 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $337 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $141 2d
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $39 28d
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 28d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $80 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $85 37d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 38d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 38d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 28 history records