Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88d8…4147 crypto 762 markets active 3d ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,234 (-39%) realized −$2,234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%316W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day137.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$283
14 days−$649
30 days−$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$762
other 0% −$7
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -21.5% -28.9% 36% 31% -23.0%
≤30d 762 -23.9% -31.2% 41% 36% -21.7%
≤90d 762 -23.9% -31.2% 41% 36% -21.7%
all 762 -23.9% -31.2% 41% 36% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 36% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 26% -29.2%
15% -43.8% 15% -36.1%
20% -49.3% 11% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses316 / 446
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)762 / 762
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day137.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 762 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$35 +470%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records