Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88d8…2541 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$2
other 18% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 16 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 6% -9.9%
all 33 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -17.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 17 $1 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $13 $0 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $23 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $16 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $14 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $11 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.78 · official $32.97 (match) · 106 history records