Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88d6…3fdb crypto 100 markets active 5d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%38W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$15
crypto 34% +$20
sports 6% −$2
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 43% -13.9%
≤30d 72 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 43% -13.9%
≤90d 76 -7.0% -15.9% 43% 41% -20.0%
all 100 -6.6% -15.5% 38% 36% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 36% -9.7%
10% -23.6% 27% -18.3%
15% -31.0% 24% -26.2%
20% -37.7% 16% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses38 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage111d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +134%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records