Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

88 0x88d4…14c0 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL +$56 (+8%) realized +$58 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day26.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-34.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-27.5%	-34.4%	50%	25%	-17.8%
≤30d	8	-27.5%	-34.4%	50%	25%	-17.8%
≤90d	8	-27.5%	-34.4%	50%	25%	-17.8%
all	8	-27.5%	-34.4%	50%	25%	-17.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-34.4%	25%	-17.8%
10% ← realistic here	-40.7%	25%	-25.7%
15%	-46.4%	25%	-32.9%
20%	-51.7%	12%	-39.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$171

Realized+$58

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)8 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day26.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$90	$89	−$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$13	$13	−$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 17	$73	−$70	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 17	$132	−$34	-26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$91	+$38	+42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$51	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 17	$77	+$4	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 17	$50	+$4	+8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	59m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$84	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$80	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Up	17¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$13	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$91	6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$91	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$152	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$43	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$39	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$51	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$54	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$25	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$25	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$26	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.88 · official $170.89 (match) · 28 history records