Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88d2…f50a sports 2014 markets active 13h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$34 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%1184W / 895L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days−$355
14 days−$340
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$67
other 4% −$12
crypto 3% +$1
world 2% −$7
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -53.8% -58.2% 24% 24% -81.1%
≤30d 489 -19.5% -27.2% 43% 40% -50.6%
≤90d 1306 -7.8% -16.6% 53% 46% -28.6%
all 2079 -4.6% -13.6% 57% 51% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 51% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 44% -29.3%
15% -29.5% 38% -36.1%
20% -36.4% 31% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1184 / 895
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2079 / 2014
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2079 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 55¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lafayette Leopards vs. Colgate Raiders Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Mercyhurst Lakers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs. UT Martin Skyhawks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Creighton Bluejays vs. Connecticut Huskies Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wofford Terriers vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
New Haven Chargers vs. Wagner Seahawks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alaves vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
New Haven Chargers vs. Fordham Rams Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Lafayette Leopards vs. American Eagles Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Liberty Flames vs. Kennesaw State Owls Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bellarmine Knights vs. North Alabama Lions Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Stonehill Skyhawks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-07? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Charlotte 49ers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Monmouth Hawks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Georgetown Hoyas Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. West Georgia Wolves Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas State Bobcats vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wofford Terriers vs. Furman Paladins Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs petardka (BO3) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bradley Braves vs. Valparaiso Beacons Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Bowling Green Falcons Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. William & Mary Tribe Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Rhode Island Rams Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $1 13h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $1 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $1 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $1 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $1 13h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $1 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $1 13h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $1 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $1 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $1 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $1 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $1 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $1 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $1 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $1 43h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $1 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $1 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $1 43h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $1 43h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $1 43h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $1 43h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $1 43h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.34 · official $6.34 (match) · 3500 history records