Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x88cf…a0af sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$266 (-15%) realized −$266 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$317
14 days−$462
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$493
other 8% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.2% +1.5% 62% 50% -18.4%
≤30d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 46% -23.0%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 46% -23.0%
all 13 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 46% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 46% -23.0%
10% -17.3% 31% -30.4%
15% -25.3% 8% -37.1%
20% -32.6% 8% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$99 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage14d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 +$15 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $268 −$39 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $162 +$44 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $55 +$18 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $479 −$384 -80%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $42 +$59 +141%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $253 −$29 -11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $116 −$112 -97%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $122 −$28 -23%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$5 -5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $121 +$22 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $58 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $20 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $98 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 74¢ $41 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 72¢ $63 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 72¢ $63 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 72¢ $63 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $118 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 85¢ $150 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $205 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 78¢ $162 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $72 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 75¢ $30 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 75¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 99¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 41¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 41¢ $21 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $173 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $250 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $306 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $225 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $253 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 86¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 2d
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $3 7d
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $4 7d
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 7d
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $94 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records