Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88cb…639b crypto 7 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-22%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 29% -42.2%
≤30d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 29% -42.2%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 29% -42.2%
all 7 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 29% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 29% -42.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -47.7%
15% -25.4% 29% -52.8%
20% -32.7% 29% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$54 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$114 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$38 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $59 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records