Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x88c6…245b crypto 47 markets active 4h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+7%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$65
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$58
crypto 35% −$14
other 5% −$11
politics 4% −$14
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 34% -36.6%
≤30d 36 +6.8% -3.4% 39% 39% -20.1%
≤90d 37 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 41% -10.8%
all 47 +5.1% -4.9% 43% 43% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 43% -5.5%
10% -14.0% 43% -14.5%
15% -22.3% 43% -22.8%
20% -29.9% 34% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage217d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +117%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$31 +595%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$18 +126%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $29 +$27 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 20 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 11PM ET Dec 13 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 13 $2 −$2 -76%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $28 +$23 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $16 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $5 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 28¢ $5 37h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 38h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 50¢ $36 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records