Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88c6…8756 crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day93.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 25% -1.9%
≤30d 88 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 25% -1.9%
≤90d 88 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 25% -1.9%
all 88 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 25% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 25% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 15% -11.2%
15% -32.9% 10% -19.8%
20% -39.5% 8% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day93.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$44 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $42 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $77 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $81 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $34 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $42 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $55 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records