Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88c1…dbd3 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$4
other 18% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% −$11
weather 3% $0
finance 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 18 +4.1% -5.8% 28% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +4.1% -5.8% 28% 6% -9.1%
all 59 -1.9% -11.3% 41% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $28 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $33 −$2 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $7 +$6 +89%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $24 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $3 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 07 $6 $0 +4%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 09 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 07 $16 $0 +2%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Apr 01 $12 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $11 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.75 · official $51.75 (match) · 213 history records