Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88bf…8340 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%26W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$3
other 26% −$1
politics 19% $0
sports 13% −$1
finance 4% −$1
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 +21.2% +9.7% 37% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 76 +33.6% +20.9% 29% 4% -9.6%
all 93 +27.5% +15.3% 28% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 3% -9.5%
10% +4.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -5.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -15.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses26 / 67
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage292d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $175 +$1 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $158 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $274 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $303 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $144 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $299 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $159 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $113 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $113 +$5 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $409 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $268 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $256 +$14 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $231 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +18%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $128 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $126 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $138 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $105 −$22 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $30 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $142 +$8 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $156 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $157 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $154 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $749 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $290 +$2 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $280 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $137 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $114 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $143 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $158 33m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $158 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $17 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $158 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $158 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $144 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $18 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $109 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $144 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $144 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $50 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $78 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $81 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $159 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $145 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $145 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $0.00 · 401 history records