trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 19 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 63% | 63% | +3.7% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 63% | 63% | +3.7% |
| all | 27 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 59% | 56% | -5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 56% | -5.5% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 41% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 26% | -22.8% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 15% | -30.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 63¢ | 62¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | 39¢ | 38¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $17 | +$7 (+71%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? | Yes | 33¢ | 32¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 52¢ | 51¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | Yes | 60¢ | 58¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? | Up | 48¢ | 32¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-34%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$24 | +238% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$3 | +34% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$2 | +23% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$6 | +57% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$30 | +291% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$11 | +105% |
| Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 12 | $10 | +$5 | +45% |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 09 | $10 | +$3 | +27% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 09 | $101 | +$28 | +28% |
| Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | Mar 07 | $10 | +$2 | +16% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Mar 07 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 05 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 05 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Trump say "President Xi" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? | Mar 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | Mar 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |