Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88bc…affc other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 1191d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$58 (+19%) realized +$57 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$37
sports 31% +$8
crypto 6% +$12
politics 5% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.7% +1.9% 39% 39% -19.6%
≤30d 31 +12.7% +1.9% 39% 39% -19.6%
≤90d 31 +12.7% +1.9% 39% 39% -19.6%
all 88 +41.6% +28.1% 40% 40% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.1% 40% +8.3%
10% +15.9% 40% -2.1%
15% +4.7% 38% -11.5%
20% -5.6% 33% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1191d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)88 / 96
History coverage1191d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +206%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $2 +$3 +130%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President in 2025? Sep 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal beat Spain? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France beat Spain? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Portugal (To Advance) Jun 04 $2 +$6 +326%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? May 10 $2 +$9 +511%
Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 06 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? May 06 $2 +$6 +254%
Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Apr 26 $4 +$9 +239%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +43%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? Apr 08 $3 +$5 +148%
Copa Del Rey: Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid (To Advance) Apr 02 $2 −$1 -47%
Copa Del Rey: Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad (To Advance) Apr 01 $3 −$2 -46%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-12? Mar 12 $4 +$3 +80%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 0m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $11 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.09 · official $23.24 (match) · 207 history records