Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x88b5…205c
politics · 99 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$174,140 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$123,298 · open +$52,952
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$416,351
Realized+$123,298
Unrealized+$52,952
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses54 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)86 / 99
History coverage376d
Avg bet$22,254
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 29 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,976
7 days−$1,976
14 days−$1,976
30 days−$1,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 97¢ $171,777 $191,876 +$20,098 (+12%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $161,376 $190,257 +$28,882 (+18%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 46¢ 88¢ $10,518 $19,980 +$9,462 (+90%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 80¢ 81¢ $8,800 $8,964 +$164 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $2,065 $2,809 +$744 (+36%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 99¢ 99¢ $814 $812 −$2 (-0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 92¢ 91¢ $462 $456 −$6 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 97¢ 98¢ $420 $425 +$5 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 97¢ 98¢ $393 $399 +$6 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $240 $248 +$8 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 88¢ $17 $35 +$18 (+103%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $418 $19 −$399 (-95%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $445 $5 −$440 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $366 $4 −$362 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $289 $3 −$286 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1,998 −$1,976 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $50,000 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $241,000 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 10 $15,968 −$15,943 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 10 $15,843 −$15,793 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 10 $15,935 −$15,839 -99%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? May 10 $18 +$10 +53%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 10 $65,287 −$18,562 -28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $145,879 +$103,030 +71%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 10 $15,984 −$15,969 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $4,067 +$158 +4%
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Apr 19 $4,452 +$1,162 +26%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 19 $22,519 +$5,670 +25%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $17,312 +$18,213 +105%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 15 $35,791 +$4,026 +11%
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? Apr 14 $246 +$80 +33%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 14 $463 +$240 +52%
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? Apr 14 $3,685 +$611 +17%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? Apr 14 $3,245 +$2,685 +83%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 14 $3,097 +$5,063 +164%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Apr 14 $7,952 +$2,941 +37%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 13 $11,135 +$2,239 +20%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in t Apr 13 $438 +$657 +150%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? Apr 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30? Apr 10 $1,399 −$104 -8%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Ne Apr 10 $2,590 −$1,974 -76%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Apr 10 $34,926 −$7,926 -23%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in t Apr 10 $69 −$43 -62%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 8% and 9% in th Apr 10 $595 −$570 -96%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New Y Apr 10 $1,431 −$1,405 -98%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in Apr 10 $163 −$127 -78%
Will Starostové get between 13% and 16% of the vote in the Czech elect Apr 10 $250 −$250 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $13,800 +$3,950 +29%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 08 $930 +$135 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $7,600 +$2,400 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $4,310 +$52 +1%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Mar 10 $2,700 −$2,696 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $4,702 +$298 +6%
Men's Quarterfinals - Slovakia vs. Germany Feb 18 $279 +$21 +8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $62,180 +$4,398 +7%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 06 $19,960 +$40 +0%
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Dec 10 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 10 $42,453 +$1,906 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2,224 +$276 +12%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $104,544 +$7,329 +7%
Democratic sweep? Nov 05 $12,000 +$2,250 +19%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 04 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 02 $996 +$4 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 02 $17,729 +$249 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 83% +$160,625
other 8% +$1,839
world 4% +$12,922
crypto 3% +$804
tech 1% +$40
sports 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $364 3m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $226 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $17 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $17 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $56 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $44 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $26 7h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $86 7h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $105 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $1 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $21 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $818 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 86¢ $4 9h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $2 15h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $2,610 16h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $584 16h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 92¢ $36 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 93¢ $123 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $147 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 92¢ $243 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $86 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 92¢ $4 19h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,597 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $293 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $1 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $366 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $29 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 93¢ $12 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 92¢ $44 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 7¢ $114 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.0% -39.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -33.0% -39.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 36 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 47% -2.6%
all 86 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 35% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 35% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 27% -12.5%
15% -24.9% 15% -21.0%
20% -32.3% 14% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416,350.87 · official $416,351.44 (match) · 3500 history records