Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x88b0…b118 other 715 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,629 (-3%) realized −$2,002 · open −$2,627
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%233W / 139L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day56.9pace
Fees−$1,022est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$26,478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$437
other 36% +$5,623
tech 17% +$255
world 2% −$93
economics 0% −$165
politics 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$98
finance 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -40.5% -46.2% 45% 17% -17.7%
≤30d 227 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 36% -9.7%
≤90d 372 +3.4% -6.5% 63% 44% -3.9%
all 372 +3.4% -6.5% 63% 44% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 44% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 33% -13.1%
15% -23.6% 26% -21.5%
20% -31.1% 21% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$230 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$26,478
Realized−$2,002
Unrealized−$2,627
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses233 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,022
Open positions409
Markets (closed)372 / 715
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$217
Trades / day56.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 409 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 88¢ $5,126 $4,935 −$191 (-4%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 22 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $1,496 $1,483 −$12 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 71¢ 40¢ $2,469 $1,417 −$1,052 (-43%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $1,389 $1,180 −$209 (-15%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 81¢ 72¢ $1,220 $1,088 −$132 (-11%)
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? No 91¢ 87¢ $1,054 $1,010 −$44 (-4%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? No 62¢ 100¢ $620 $1,000 +$380 (+61%)
Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? No 90¢ 94¢ $900 $944 +$44 (+5%)
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 AL Central title? No 95¢ 93¢ $664 $653 −$11 (-2%)
Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title? No 92¢ 96¢ $574 $603 +$29 (+5%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $588 $582 −$5 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $501 $538 +$38 (+7%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $435 $482 +$46 (+11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 48¢ $640 $475 −$165 (-26%)
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 92¢ 93¢ $442 $446 +$4 (+1%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $553 $438 −$115 (-21%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $349 $423 +$74 (+21%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $377 $381 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Texas Rangers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 50¢ 35¢ $502 $352 −$151 (-30%)
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $307 $307 +$0 (+0%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 92¢ 88¢ $315 $300 −$15 (-5%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $237 $230 −$8 (-3%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $216 $217 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $241 $210 −$31 (-13%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $122.50 Week of June 22 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $205 $205 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 Week of June 22 Jun 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 25 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $289 −$289 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $80 +$1 +2%
Will South Africa concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Korea concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mexico concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qatar record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $254 −$254 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? Jun 25 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Jordan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in June? Jun 23 $186 +$17 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Jun 23 $896 +$132 +15%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in June? Jun 23 $96 +$1 +1%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $760 +$30 +4%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 23 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Oakland Athletics win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 23 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 22 $51 +$4 +9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $259 +$241 +93%
Will Tunisia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $89 +$4 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $316 +$684 +216%
Will Iran concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 21 $0 $0 +5%
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Jun 21 $403 +$19 +5%
Will Emiliano Buendía score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $554 +$11 +2%
Will Sweden go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2,659 +$2,341 +88%
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular Jun 21 $107 +$15 +14%
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 21 $51 +$4 +9%
Will Türkiye record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $527 −$527 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $527 −$527 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $995 −$995 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $557 +$443 +79%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 85¢ $42 7h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $63 8h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $43 8h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $8 8h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $26 8h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $18 8h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 8h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL Yes 63¢ $26 8h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $248 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Nick Kurtz win the 2026 American League MVP Award? SELL No 83¢ $313 8h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 57¢ $81 9h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of June 22 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $3 9h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 46¢ $2 10h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 11h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 56¢ $4 11h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 56¢ $76 11h
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin <30%? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 Week of June 22 BUY No 72¢ $61 12h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 13h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 13h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 16h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 47¢ $261 17h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 52¢ $289 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,477.63 · official $26,439.85 (match) · 3500 history records