Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x88b0…f8d8 sports 930 markets active 23h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,115 (+1%) realized +$1,118 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%492W / 434L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$1,847est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$330
7 days−$9,008
14 days−$3,180
30 days−$14,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,491
other 16% +$1,597
crypto 0% +$23
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -27.6% -34.5% 32% 31% -53.3%
≤30d 427 -3.5% -12.7% 42% 41% -28.3%
≤90d 926 +15.3% +4.3% 53% 52% -10.4%
all 926 +15.3% +4.3% 53% 52% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 52% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 47% -18.9%
15% -14.8% 42% -26.8%
20% -23.1% 34% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +23% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$153 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$1,118
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses492 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,847
Open positions3
Markets (closed)926 / 930
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$153
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 926 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 71¢ 80¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 28¢ $96 $82 −$14 (-14%)
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 23.5 Over 1¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4145%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif Jun 15 $68 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $76 +$119 +157%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $496 +$334 +67%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
UnionTouargaSports leading at halftime? Jun 14 $35 +$17 +49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $7 +$18 +276%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $172 +$298 +172%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu Jun 13 $106 +$185 +174%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $173 +$242 +140%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$81 -99%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Second half draw? Jun 12 $81 +$184 +227%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $129 +$252 +195%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $1 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $55 +$33 +59%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $64 −$11 -18%
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZANSIDE GAMING - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 +$11 +19%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $132 +$157 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $124 +$356 +288%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $90 +$449 +497%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $241 +$276 +114%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $419 +$27 +6%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: DXA Esports vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bath win? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif BUY Rival Esports 35¢ $68 23h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 40¢ $59 30h
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 35h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 8¢ $16 36h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 19¢ $76 36h
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 17¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 16¢ $65 2d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 42¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 42¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 42¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 41¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 36¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 35¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 34¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 34¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 34¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED Leagu BUY Misa Esports 34¢ $34 3d
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda BUY BC Neptunas Klaipeda 41¢ $44 3d
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda BUY BC Neptunas Klaipeda 41¢ $129 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 26¢ $7 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $0 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $79 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 36¢ $172 3d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 69¢ $84 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 43¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 43¢ $21 3d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 65¢ $82 3d
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Second half draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.99 · official $170.93 (match) · 3500 history records