Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88af…a083 crypto 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$361 (-5%) realized −$374 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%180W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$41
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$238
sports 10% +$123
other 5% −$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +74.1% +57.5% 100% 75% +41.5%
≤30d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 31% +6.7%
≤90d 182 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 42% -18.9%
all 297 -4.7% -13.8% 61% 47% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 47% -14.2%
10% -22.0% 35% -22.4%
15% -29.6% 24% -29.9%
20% -36.5% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses180 / 117
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)297 / 300
History coverage113d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 87¢ 96¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Under 45¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+110%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$10 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$23 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$3 +10%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $8 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +133%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -69%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $9 −$7 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 19 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? May 19 $2 +$3 +158%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $7 −$6 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 May 16 $27 +$12 +44%
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 16 $20 +$6 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $28 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 13m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 89¢ $34 14m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 15m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 45¢ $18 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $28 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 99¢ $28 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 55¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 13d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 18¢ $3 13d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 40¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 17d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 18d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.49 · official $56.66 · 623 history records