Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88ad…9e5f sports 1428 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,283 (-7%) realized −$8,188 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%1063W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$678
14 days−$824
30 days−$1,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$2,726
crypto 35% −$919
other 14% −$539
world 4% −$812
politics 4% −$292
weather 2% −$183
economics 0% +$33
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% +$58
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -2.9% -12.1% 71% 42% -13.3%
≤30d 265 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 43% -14.3%
≤90d 1395 -4.9% -13.9% 76% 32% -13.9%
all 1395 -4.9% -13.9% 76% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 32% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 18% -22.1%
15% -29.7% 12% -29.7%
20% -36.6% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$45 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,336
Realized−$8,188
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1063 / 332
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1395 / 1428
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 62¢ 77¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ 100¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 81¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 99¢ $89 $99 +$10 (+11%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $62 $94 +$32 (+52%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $80 $92 +$12 (+14%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $66 $78 +$12 (+17%)
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 64¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 67¢ 74¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 70¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 52¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 79¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 64¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ $269 $24 −$245 (-91%)
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 72¢ $14 $21 +$8 (+55%)
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 40¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-28%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 56¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+73%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 62¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+48%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 58¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 60¢ $8 $15 +$6 (+76%)
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 43¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 41¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 46¢ $8 $12 +$3 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $94 +$5 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$25 +25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $201 +$46 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Michael Olise: 1+ shots Jun 16 $80 +$5 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $151 −$30 -20%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 +$9 +5%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 +$6 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $6 +$24 +400%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +79%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $20 +$15 +79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$25 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 +$18 +12%
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $50 −$16 -31%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $81 +$41 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +67%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $201 +$29 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$14 +28%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $112 +$114 +102%
Will the announcers say "Spinning" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $16 +$24 +150%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $251 +$53 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$17 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$21 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$20 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$81 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $50 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $28 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $100 47m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $31 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No $30 1h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $247 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $201 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $100 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $201 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $120 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 93¢ $100 14h
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $12 18h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $28 18h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 18h
Michael Olise: 1+ shots BUY Yes 94¢ $80 18h
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $100 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $201 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 21h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 89¢ $100 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 28h
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $100 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,336.28 · official $1,337.42 (match) · 3500 history records