Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88aa…ea6f other 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,876 (+1%) realized +$3,775 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate75%260W / 85L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,077per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$444est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$9,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$126
14 days+$119
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3,662
politics 30% +$290
world 10% +$260
finance 6% +$733
crypto 5% −$243
sports 5% −$724
tech 0% −$467
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 70% 30% -4.2%
≤30d 71 -8.0% -16.8% 72% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 227 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 16% -9.5%
all 345 -3.2% -12.5% 75% 18% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 18% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 6% -17.5%
15% -28.5% 3% -25.4%
20% -35.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$63 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$9,538
Realized+$3,775
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses260 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$444
Open positions25
Markets (closed)345 / 370
History coverage231d
Avg bet$1,077
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,613 $1,615 +$2 (+0%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,508 $1,581 +$73 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $762 $742 −$20 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $626 $696 +$70 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $682 $684 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $677 $674 −$3 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $612 $607 −$6 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $536 $552 +$16 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $533 $532 −$1 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $481 $483 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $240 $265 +$25 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $192 $193 +$1 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $162 $176 +$14 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $172 $174 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $101 $104 +$3 (+3%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 88¢ $62 $80 +$18 (+29%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 77¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+18%)
Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 62¢ $86 $62 −$24 (-28%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $39 $49 +$10 (+25%)
Perena FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 93¢ 54¢ $82 $47 −$34 (-42%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 89¢ 73¢ $42 $34 −$7 (-18%)
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $63 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 70¢ 12¢ $70 $12 −$58 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 17 $175 +$15 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 17 $44 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 16 $40 +$50 +125%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $706 +$109 +15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 14 $147 +$10 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $494 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $508 −$26 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 04 $48 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 04 $179 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $112 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 04 $255 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 04 $2,640 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $289 +$11 +4%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $100,000 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $486 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $34 +$1 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,225 −$42 -4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Ethena dip to $0.08 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.28 in May? Jun 01 $151 +$2 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $503 +$13 +2%
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 in May? Jun 01 $173 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $72 −$16 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $10 +$10 +93%
Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 31 $725 −$18 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 30 $4,399 +$15 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 30 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 30 $96 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $4,492 +$9 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $67 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? May 28 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 94¢ $614 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $620 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $97 10h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 15h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $8 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL No 91¢ $80 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $682 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 97¢ $188 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $993 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $978 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 95¢ $85 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 89¢ $490 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $74 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 4¢ $4 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 4¢ $0 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $197 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 98¢ $55 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 98¢ $128 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $194 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $266 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 4¢ $0 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 99¢ $30 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 99¢ $15 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 7¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,537.84 · official $9,537.84 (match) · 2830 history records