Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88a9…e618 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$416 (+34%) realized +$383 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$464
other 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +64.7% +49.0% 55% 45% +50.4%
≤30d 20 +64.7% +49.0% 55% 45% +50.4%
≤90d 20 +64.7% +49.0% 55% 45% +50.4%
all 20 +64.7% +49.0% 55% 45% +50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.0% 45% +50.4%
10% ← realistic here +34.8% 30% +36.0%
15% +21.7% 30% +22.8%
20% +9.8% 30% +10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$15 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions17
Markets (closed)20 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $120 $111 −$9 (-8%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ 100¢ $30 $53 +$23 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 50¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 49¢ 55¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ 59¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 76¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 82¢ 86¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ 94¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ 83¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Ekaterina Yashina 91¢ 91¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Odeta Panasa 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Varvara Panshina 91¢ 87¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$5 -15%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $31 +$53 +172%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$48 +158%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic Jun 16 $30 +$19 +62%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $30 −$7 -23%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $30 +$19 +62%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $31 +$344 +1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $31 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 91¢ $30 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $30 2h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $30 3h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $30 13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $30 13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $30 13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $30 13h
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ekaterina Yashina 91¢ $30 17h
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $30 17h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $30 17h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $30 17h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 58¢ $30 17h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Gianmarco Ferrari 93¢ $30 17h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) BUY Ruiz 51¢ $30 18h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 65¢ $30 20h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ $30 22h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ $30 22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 86¢ $30 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Ekaterina Maklakova 59¢ $30 22h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 47¢ $30 23h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $30 24h
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 24h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 61¢ $30 24h
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 38¢ $31 24h
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Yuno Kitahara 87¢ $30 25h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 82¢ $30 25h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 76¢ $30 25h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 52¢ $30 25h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Hyeon Chung 52¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.89 · official $684.78 (match) · 54 history records