Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88a5…406b other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-31%) realized −$51 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$48
sports 27% −$22
world 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 33% -5.4%
≤30d 15 -51.5% -56.1% 20% 20% -49.4%
≤90d 15 -51.5% -56.1% 20% 20% -49.4%
all 15 -51.5% -56.1% 20% 20% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 20% -49.4%
10% -60.3% 20% -54.2%
15% -64.2% 7% -58.7%
20% -67.7% 7% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-45%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+61%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $10 +$11 +107%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -56%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +35%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$15 -68%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$4 -57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$10 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 39m
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 55¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.75 · official $28.70 (match) · 42 history records