Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

88 0x88a4…4256 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$94 (+13%) realized +$96 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown92%max

Avg bet$150per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+5.9%	-4.2%	67%	67%	+5.2%
≤30d	3	+5.9%	-4.2%	67%	67%	+5.2%
≤90d	3	+5.9%	-4.2%	67%	67%	+5.2%
all	3	+5.9%	-4.2%	67%	67%	+5.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.2%	67%	+5.2%
10%	-13.3%	67%	-4.9%
15%	-21.7%	33%	-14.1%
20%	-29.4%	33%	-22.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$85 vs −$82 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$96

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$150

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown92%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$71	+70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$345	+$99	+29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$82	-81%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$444	10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	15¢	$19	10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	77¢	$345	10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.00 · official $198.00 (match) · 8 history records