Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88a1…acf7 sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%83W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$24
other 28% +$13
world 2% $0
culture 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -38.8% -44.6% 33% 33% -27.6%
≤30d 9 -38.8% -44.6% 33% 33% -27.6%
≤90d 9 -38.8% -44.6% 33% 33% -27.6%
all 165 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 49% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 49% -12.0%
10% -20.9% 48% -20.4%
15% -28.5% 46% -28.1%
20% -35.5% 44% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses83 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)165 / 174
History coverage191d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$7 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jan 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jan 07 $3 +$1 +41%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jan 06 $1 +$1 +85%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5) Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Jan 05 $2 +$2 +89%
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5) Jan 05 $1 +$1 +96%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jan 05 $2 +$2 +82%
Spread: Magic (-6.5) Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Nets Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-12.5) Jan 04 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jan 04 $1 +$1 +100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jan 04 $2 +$1 +70%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jan 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jan 03 $2 +$1 +52%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5 Jan 03 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5 Jan 03 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Jan 03 $1 −$1 -65%
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Magic (-4.5) Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5 Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5 Jan 02 $1 +$1 +85%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jan 02 $10 +$3 +28%
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) Jan 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 02 $2 −$1 -68%
Jazz vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5 Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 220.5 Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jan 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jan 01 $5 +$2 +48%
Nuggets vs. Raptors Jan 01 $5 +$4 +85%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Jan 01 $2 +$2 +85%
Spread: Raptors (-6.5) Jan 01 $3 −$1 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 46m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 46m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 47m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $7 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $2 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 46h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Lakers 53¢ $5 158d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Clippers 56¢ $3 158d
Heat vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 71¢ $3 159d
Spurs vs. Grizzlies BUY Spurs 67¢ $3 159d
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $1 159d
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5) BUY Jazz 48¢ $1 160d
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) BUY Rockets 54¢ $1 160d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Pistons 54¢ $1 160d
Spread: Magic (-6.5) BUY Pacers 49¢ $2 161d
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 51¢ $1 161d
1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) BUY Wizards 55¢ $1 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.00 · official $84.00 (match) · 307 history records