Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88a0…a1df crypto 307 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%237W / 64L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$23
politics 41% −$17
sports 5% +$4
crypto 3% +$2
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% +$3
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 53% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 119 +1.0% -8.6% 80% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 301 -0.1% -9.6% 79% 0% -9.6%
all 301 -0.1% -9.6% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses237 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)301 / 307
History coverage79d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $672 $672 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 91¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 21 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $637 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +75%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $527 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $200? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.75 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.25 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.25 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $580? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $190? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $415? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $195? Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $420? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $672 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $672 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $673 26h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $673 26h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $674 38h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $675 38h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $675 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $667 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $668 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $651 4d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $651 5d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $652 5d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 6d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $650 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 6d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $650 7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 7d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $678 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $679 9d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $464 9d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 9d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $680 10d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $637 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $707.20 · official $707.21 (match) · 688 history records