Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x889f…0d96 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$458 (+10%) realized +$511 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$304
14 days+$463
30 days+$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$334
crypto 13% +$98
sports 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 60% +7.4%
≤30d 23 +6.9% -3.3% 87% 74% -0.5%
≤90d 23 +6.9% -3.3% 87% 74% -0.5%
all 23 +6.9% -3.3% 87% 74% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 74% -0.5%
10% -12.5% 35% -10.0%
15% -21.0% 22% -18.7%
20% -28.7% 4% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$117 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized+$511
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage24d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $210 $211 +$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 64¢ $210 $156 −$54 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $301 +$56 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $272 +$29 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $226 +$20 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $428 +$161 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $342 +$41 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $170 +$46 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $293 +$35 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $179 +$5 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $312 −$310 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $212 +$92 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $243 +$42 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $208 +$36 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $179 +$28 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $143 +$37 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $118 +$25 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $83 +$35 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $73 +$10 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $60 +$14 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $211 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $211 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 92¢ $226 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $272 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $428 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $170 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $342 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $184 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $179 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $293 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 15d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $10 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $312 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $212 18d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $243 19d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $208 20d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 86¢ $179 20d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $143 21d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $118 21d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $83 22d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $73 22d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 81¢ $60 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.05 · official $367.05 (match) · 45 history records