Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x889e…09e0
politics · 76 markets active 122d ago
0.0score
+$1,219,857 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,211,036 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,211,036
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses53 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)116 / 76
History coverage133d
Avg bet$84,976
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 7 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146,679
7 days−$146,679
14 days−$146,679
30 days−$146,679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 59¢ 99¢ $19 $32 +$13 (+67%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+57%)
GTA VI released before June 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 25¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+98%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Yes 21¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+137%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 34¢ 49¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? No 42¢ 0¢ $39,465 $0 −$39,465 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $681 $0 −$681 (-100%)
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $487 $0 −$487 (-100%)
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1,325 $0 −$1,325 (-100%)
Will the Commanders win the 2026 NFC Championship? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2,862 $0 −$2,862 (-100%)
OpenAI browser in July? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $369 $0 −$369 (-100%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
49ers vs. Rams Rams 53¢ 0¢ $27,298 $0 −$27,298 (-100%)
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? No 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $9,000 $0 −$9,000 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? No 49¢ 0¢ $82,452 $0 −$82,452 (-100%)
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $9,507 $0 −$9,507 (-100%)
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files? No 5¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 12 $0 +$209 +44692%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jun 12 $39,465 −$39,465 -100%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the Commanders win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $2,862 −$2,862 -100%
OpenAI browser in July? Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $0 $0 -938%
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 12 $750 −$750 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $11,744 +$4,851 +41%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? Jun 12 $3,248 −$3,248 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Jun 12 $12,441 −$10,310 -83%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 12 $213 −$213 -100%
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31? Jun 12 $356 −$356 -100%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $4,338 −$4,338 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk? Jun 12 $263 −$263 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jun 12 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July? Jun 12 $331 −$331 -100%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31? Jun 12 $615 −$95 -15%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Jun 12 $11,893 −$11,893 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Jun 12 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jun 12 $491 −$491 -100%
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? Jun 12 $1,508 −$1,508 -100%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $490 −$490 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $644 −$644 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Wednesday? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? Jun 12 $13,493 −$13,493 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Jun 12 $2,526 +$15,574 +616%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Jun 12 $479 −$479 -100%
Chiefs vs. Chargers Jun 12 $16,533 −$16,533 -100%
Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday? Jun 12 $746 −$746 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 12 $0 −$3,143 -4389032%
TCU vs. North Carolina Jun 12 $11,820 −$11,820 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North? Jun 12 $777 −$777 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Jun 12 $9,098 −$9,098 -100%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Jun 12 $5,178 −$5,178 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $20,496 −$20,681 -101%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Jun 12 $669 −$669 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Jun 12 $740 −$740 -100%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Jun 12 $1,813 −$1,813 -100%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? Jun 12 $909 −$909 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $1,213,226 −$32,852 -3%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 10 $5,015 +$160 +3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $608 +$18,215 +2994%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 10 $183,663 +$34,438 +19%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 10 $16,933 +$7,328 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 33% −$21,871
politics 23% +$177,836
world 17% +$306,991
other 16% +$623,596
sports 6% +$252,226
culture 5% +$20,071
crypto 0% −$1,116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $245 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 5¢ $528 121d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $735 121d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 99¢ $2,269 121d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $71 121d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2,546 121d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4,667 121d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $434 121d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 48¢ $2,672 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 48¢ $15,682 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $24,261 121d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 40¢ $51,235 121d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $56,365 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 83¢ $65,907 121d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No 34¢ $101,808 121d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No 34¢ $3 121d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No 34¢ $3 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $110,079 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $192,800 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $192,800 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $192,800 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $192,800 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $192,800 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $96,400 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $9,640 121d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $60,423 129d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 99¢ $217,800 129d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 99¢ $215,646 130d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 99¢ $17 130d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 99¢ $1,647 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+108.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -78.2% -80.3% 5% 5% -81.3%
≤30d 44 -78.2% -80.3% 5% 5% -81.3%
≤90d 44 -78.2% -80.3% 5% 5% -81.3%
all 116 +130.6% +108.7% 46% 34% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +108.7% 34% +9.4%
10% +88.7% 31% -1.1%
15% ← realistic here +70.5% 25% -10.6%
20% +53.8% 23% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.37 · official $48.69 · 3500 history records