Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x889d…e705 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$441 (+26%) realized +$445 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$489
sports 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +60.2% +44.9% 42% 42% +27.7%
≤30d 12 +60.2% +44.9% 42% 42% +27.7%
≤90d 12 +60.2% +44.9% 42% 42% +27.7%
all 12 +60.2% +44.9% 42% 42% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.9% 42% +27.7%
10% ← realistic here +31.0% 42% +15.4%
15% +18.4% 33% +4.3%
20% +6.8% 33% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +179% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$12 · ×9.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.0 per $1 lost it wins $7.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$445
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $74 $81 +$7 (+9%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$36 +174%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +175%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$264 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +874%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $541 +$158 +29%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -40%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $74 14m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 40¢ $56 27m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 51m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $121 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $698 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.50 · official $379.50 (match) · 27 history records