Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x889d…0b33 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+14%) realized +$283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$390
other 9% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 43% +6.8%
≤30d 46 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 43% +6.8%
≤90d 46 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 43% +6.8%
all 46 -5.9% -14.8% 46% 43% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 43% +6.8%
10% -23.0% 39% -3.4%
15% -30.4% 39% -12.7%
20% -37.2% 37% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$27 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage6d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 +$17 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $310 +$198 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $76 −$73 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $48 +$53 +109%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 +$171 +206%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $191 +$262 +137%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -75%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 −$56 -72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$38 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $56 +$29 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$35 +54%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $132 +$74 +56%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$25 -78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $46 +$7 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $65 −$15 -24%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $24 +$31 +129%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $70 +$82 +116%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$44 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $29 −$28 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $74 −$27 -36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +197%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$8 +116%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 +$14 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +216%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 +$5 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 −$3 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $73 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 1¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 11¢ $61 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $62 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $59 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 13¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $56 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $48 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $27 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $24 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $23 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $21 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $21 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $18 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $17 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $14 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records