Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
88 0x8897…5561 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5
other 37% +$8
finance 8% +$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 10 +5.9% -4.2% 80% 10% -8.1%
≤90d 10 +5.9% -4.2% 80% 10% -8.1%
all 30 +19.1% +7.7% 63% 10% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 10% -7.2%
10% -2.6% 7% -16.0%
15% -12.0% 7% -24.2%
20% -20.6% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×17.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×84.17 per $1 lost it wins $84.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage398d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $4 +$2 +48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $39 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $2 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Dec 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $1 +$4 +477%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m May 24 $6 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $17 +$3 +19%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $3 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $8 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $26 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $16 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 65¢ $1 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $44 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $44 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $6 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $23 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $1 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $16 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $39 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.33 · official $47.33 (match) · 100 history records