Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8896…aad6 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,943 (+4%) realized +$2,921 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate83%55W / 11L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$961per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$2,758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$427
7 days+$958
14 days+$1,591
30 days+$2,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$819
sports 42% +$1,029
finance 5% +$279
tech 4% +$346
world 1% +$214
economics 1% +$10
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +7.8% -2.4% 85% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 56 +3.6% -6.2% 82% 23% -6.8%
≤90d 66 +3.9% -6.0% 83% 27% -6.3%
all 66 +3.9% -6.0% 83% 27% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 27% -6.3%
10% -15.0% 15% -15.3%
15% -23.2% 9% -23.4%
20% -30.8% 5% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,588) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$85 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,758
Realized+$2,921
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses55 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions13
Markets (closed)66 / 79
History coverage76d
Avg bet$961
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $150 $201 +$51 (+34%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 30¢ $226 $154 −$72 (-32%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 91¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 70¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 76¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 46¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+69%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 85¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? No 87¢ 13¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,881 +$47 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,859 +$19 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 +$52 +52%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3,537 +$49 +1%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $3,479 +$58 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $589 +$3 +0%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $2,843 +$146 +5%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $404 +$61 +15%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $36 +$89 +248%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$27 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2,787 +$30 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2,772 +$15 +0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1,423 +$67 +5%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,442 +$74 +5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $2,731 +$134 +5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,691 +$40 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $2,666 +$24 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,671 −$4 -0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $2,678 −$6 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,346 +$106 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,652 +$2 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,588 +$64 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$12 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,674 +$306 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $507 +$188 +37%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $604 +$40 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,901 +$43 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,887 +$14 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,760 +$127 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +248%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,566 +$94 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,482 +$141 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,491 +$246 +10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $2,678 +$344 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 08 $1,381 −$8 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 01 $1,270 +$99 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $257 +$118 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,859 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,881 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,537 4h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $3,479 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $102 16h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $589 25h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2,843 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $101 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,787 28h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2,772 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $101 37h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $66 39h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 39h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1,423 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1,442 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $2,731 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,691 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2,666 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,671 3d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $2,678 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,346 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,652 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,588 6d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 6d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 6d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,758.02 · official $2,758.29 (match) · 373 history records