Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8896…7c53 sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,129 (-6%) realized −$22,123 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%118W / 88L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,704per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$3,524est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$451
30 days+$3,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$25,082
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 48 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 54% -3.5%
≤90d 206 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 40% -15.9%
all 206 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 40% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 40% -15.9%
10% -27.1% 18% -24.0%
15% ← realistic here -34.1% 7% -31.3%
20% -40.6% 2% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,382) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$645 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$22,123
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses118 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,524
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage67d
Avg bet$1,704
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 70¢ 92¢ $368 $488 +$119 (+32%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 6¢ 8¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,811 +$365 +20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $361 +$86 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $740 +$43 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,861 +$249 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,289 −$366 -11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,402 +$198 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $535 +$115 +21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $252 +$60 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,282 −$595 -46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $395 +$160 +40%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,159 −$280 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $360 +$40 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,266 +$841 +37%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $598 −$98 -16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,179 +$202 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $367 +$132 +36%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $249 −$219 -88%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $246 −$246 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2,326 +$5 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,148 +$350 +30%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $438 −$18 -4%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,951 −$51 -3%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $3,294 −$616 -19%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $161 −$11 -7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $2,008 +$248 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $292 −$80 -27%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $5,209 −$677 -13%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1,547 −$192 -12%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $743 +$437 +59%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,574 +$376 +24%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $313 +$59 +19%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,676 +$342 +20%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1,575 +$224 +14%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $737 −$71 -10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $2,530 +$442 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $777 +$222 +29%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $6,293 +$1,277 +20%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $169 +$31 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,276 +$223 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $13 +$3 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $464 −$13 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $162 −$162 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $721 +$125 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $275 +$110 +40%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $1,021 +$137 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 29 $4,015 −$355 -9%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 29 $324 −$24 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 6¢ $6 5m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 70¢ $103 9m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 70¢ $107 9m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $18 14m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $18 14m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $36 14m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $4 14m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 82¢ $82 21m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 83¢ $4 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 83¢ $5 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $33 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $23 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $3 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $31 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 79¢ $198 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 78¢ $158 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $124 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $155 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $0 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $0 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $7 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $0 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $44 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 27¢ $0 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 27¢ $0 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 27¢ $14 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 27¢ $2 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 27¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.41 · official $499.69 (match) · 3290 history records